DNV’s Technology Outlook 2020 report highlights technologies that could have great impact in the maritime and energy sectors.

Technology Outlook 2020 represents DNV’s way of looking into the future. The results were presented in DNV Piraeus premises, by Elisabeth Harstad, Managing Director of DNV Research & Innovation, and Nikolaos Kakalis, Head of DNV Research & Innovation Greece.

Technology Outlook 2020 looks at future technologies in four main areas: shipping, fossil energy, renewable and nuclear energy, and power systems. The report covers seven global megatrends which DNV believes will effect developments in the selected areas, and explores four scenarios, a combination of drivers which form possible alternative futures.

"We firmly believe that technology is a vital part of the solution for many of the global and industry challenges facing us today and we believe that the best way to be prepared for the future is to have a broad view over technologies from the many industry sectors which we serve”, says Ms Harstad.

Commenting on the key summary points, Ms Harstad says “There is little of that which will characterise society in 2020 that is not already in the labs or on the drawing boards. Technological developments take long, slow steps. Technological evolution is more likely than technological revolution, but we can expect the technology to be used in new areas – for example, we think that nanotechnology will be important for developing renewable energy. Information Communication Technology will permeate all technology”.

Sustainable shipping solutions, innovative ships designs and port solutions are covered in the report. “We will see concepts with modified hull forms, using air bubble lubrication, air cavity systems, and new types of surface materials and maybe ballast free ships,” says Ms Harstad and adds, “It is likely that we will see the application of more environmentally friendly fuels like LNG and to a lesser degree biofuels. Nuclear might also come into play beyond 2020 but will initially struggle to get public acceptance”.

Hybrid propulsion – the Prius of the Seas – where marine fuel cells, batteries or solar panels are integrated in a Diesel-electric arrangement might also be a reality in commercial shipping in 2020, in particular for ships with variable power demands. Climate change will result in Arctic ship traffic increase, leading to faster development of Arctic-specific technologies such as ice routing optimisation software, hull load monitoring and new icebreaking concepts. E-navigation including ECDIS, weather routing, piracy detention and ship-port synchronization technologies are expected to be widely used preventing accidents and optimising performance.

“Advanced modelling tools are an enabling technology for developing and assessing novel hull designs, propulsors and complex machinery systems, and are expected to be increasingly used towards 2020”, says Dr. Kakalis adding that; “large-scale demonstrator projects would be the next step in order to accelerate innovation and technology adoption, while sharing investments and risks among the major stakeholders”.

In the energy sector, fossil fuels will be the largest part of the energy mix also in 2020 and DNV believes the focus will be on increasing efficiency and improving the environmental footprint from operations. Increasingly more advanced subsea oil and gas production systems are expected to be used, and drilling and intervention technology will diversify, apply smarter monitoring and increase efficiency. Unconventional oil and gas, mainly dominated by shale gas, will be a considerable part of the energy mix, and the challenges related to water treatment will have to be solved.

Future refineries will face stricter emission requirements, and they will have to be far more ‘intelligent’ then they are today. While CO2 capture and storage technologies are maturing and becoming more cost efficient, the large scale use of them in 2020 will be limited, predicts Ms Harstad. Development of technologies for CO2 utilisation – turning CO2 into useful products – will be developed, but will probably struggle to become commercial in 2020. Turning to renewables, Ms Harstad says “the decade for introduction to the low carbon economy is underway; we will see cost reduction and efficiency improvements for the renewables, but the deployment of these will depend a lot on infrastructure developments”. For wind energy, we will see offshore and onshore going in different directions: onshore staying about the same size as they are today, though becoming smarter. Commercial offshore turbines might reach a capacity of 10MW. Solar heat and power will grow, she predicts. Finally “Power transmission systems will be one of the major issues in the transition process towards the low carbon economy,” argues Ms Harstad and adds, “Cross national super grids, offshore transmission grids to bring wind energy to shore, smart grids and managing variable output due to integration of renewables are all part of the solution”.

Summarising, Ms Harstad highlights that “This is a decade of transition, and these are the years that we have the opportunity to prepare for a more sustainable future by driving new technologies from idea and test-stage to full-scale cost competitive solutions”. 

Elisabeth Harstad is Senior Vice President and Managing Director of DNV Research & Innovation. She holds an MSc in Process Engineering and she has had various positions in DNV including those of COO of DNV Technology Services, Director of Planning, Business Development and Marketing for Oil&gas.

Nikolaos Kakalis is the Head of DNV Research & Innovation Greece. He holds a PhD in Chemical Engineering and an MSc in Process Engineering and has brought significant international expertise stemming from his previous research & development assignments.

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